A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
